TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21029626Ключевые слова:
tourism economics; GDP contribution; employment; resilience; COVID-19; recovery; forecastingАннотация
The COVID-19 pandemic caused one of the most significant contractions in the modern history of tourism,
providing a natural experiment in the sector’s macroeconomic weight and resilience. This study analyses the trajectory
of tourism’s contribution to global gross domestic product and employment over 2015–2025 and projects it to 2030. Tourism’s
GDP share, stable at about 10.3 percent on the eve of the pandemic, declined to 5.5 percent in 2020 — a 47 percent
contraction — before recovering to 10.3 percent by 2025; its employment share fell more modestly, from 10.3 to 8.4 percent
— an 18 percent contraction — and recovered to 10.9 percent. The asymmetry between the deep, V-shaped output
contraction and the shallower, more persistent employment adjustment is the study’s central empirical finding, indicating
substantial labour retention and a slower but ultimately fuller employment recovery. Trend projections point to continued
expansion of both shares through 2030. The results quantify tourism’s macroeconomic significance, characterize its resilience
profile, and inform countercyclical and workforce policy.
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