ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES IN KARAKALPAKSTAN REPUBLIC

Аннотация

This study investigates the determinants of agricultural production activities in the Republic of Karakalpakstan
using an econometric approach. Agriculture is one of the most important sectors in the regional economy, providing
employment, income generation, and food security for the rural population. However, the sector operates under severe
environmental and structural constraints, including acute water scarcity, high soil salinity, land degradation, and the longterm
ecological consequences of the Aral Sea crisis. These challenges significantly limit productivity growth and increase
the vulnerability of agricultural output to external shocks such as climate variability and water resource fluctuations.
The main objective of this research is to empirically identify and quantify the key factors influencing agricultural production
in the region. To achieve this, the study employs a log-linear Cobb–Douglas production function estimated using the
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The model incorporates major production inputs such as irrigated land area, labor
force in agriculture, capital investment, and water availability. The data used in the analysis are obtained from official statistical
sources, including regional agricultural reports and national statistical databases.
The econometric results indicate that irrigated land and capital investment are the most statistically significant and economically
influential determinants of agricultural output in Karakalpakstan. Water availability also demonstrates a strong
positive relationship with production levels, highlighting the critical importance of irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid
environments. Labor input, while positively associated with output, shows a relatively lower marginal impact, suggesting
diminishing returns under traditional agricultural practices. These findings confirm that capital-intensive and resource-efficient
agricultural systems are more effective in improving productivity in environmentally stressed regions.