UY-JOY QURILISHI HAJMINI UZOQ MUDDATLI PROGNOZLASHDA EKONOMETRIK MODELLASHTIRISH USULLARINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18892651Ключевые слова:
Uy-joy fondi, prognozlash, ekonometrik model, ARMAX, Qoraqalpog‘iston, aholini ta’minlanish darajasiАннотация
Ushbu maqolada Qoraqalpog‘iston Respublikasida uy-joy fondining umumiy maydoni va aholini uy-joy
bilan ta’minlanish darajasini uzoq muddatli prognozlash uchun ARMAX ekonometrik modeli qo‘llanildi. Modelga
2017-2018-yillardagi keskin o‘zgarishlarni hisobga olish uchun dummy o‘zgaruvchilar kiritildi. Natijalar keyingi besh yilda
uy-joy fondi va aholini ta’minlanish darajasining ijobiy o‘sish sur’atini ko‘rsatadi. Model koeffitsiyentlari yuqori ishonchlilikka
ega (R²=0,94-0,98), bu prognozlarning aniqligini ta’minlaydi
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