ANALYSIS OF UZBEKISTAN’S MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND GDP GROWTH

Аннотация

Abstract. The growth of the economy is one of the key goals of macroeconomic policy, especially in the context of
developing and transitional economies that aim at the achievement of sustainable development and better living
standards. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important indicator used to measure the performance of an economy
by providing an analysis of the level of investment activity, sector structure, and macroeconomic stability. Uzbekistan
has experienced significant structural and institutional changes over the last several years to liberalize the economy
and empower market mechanisms; therefore, the analysis of its key economic indicators and GDP growth is not only
timely but also relevant. Although an extensive literature on the subject is growing, a significant gap in knowledge about
a multifaceted econometric evaluation of the aggregate impact of several macroeconomic variables on GDP growth in
Uzbekistan in the medium and long term remains.
In order to fill this gap, the research methodology involves the use of a quantitative econometric design based on annual
macroeconomic variables for 2010–2025. The dependent variable is GDP growth, and the regression model used is a
multi-factor regression applying the ordinary least squares method. The explanatory variables are investment in fixed
capital, industrial production, development of the services sector, and inflation. As the empirical data show, investment
activity and industrial production have a statistically significant positive effect on GDP growth, which proves the key role
of capital accumulation and real sector growth in the development of the Uzbekistan economy. The services industry
makes a positive contribution but to a lower degree, whereas inflation shows a negative correlation with economic growth.
The implications of the findings are that, to ensure long-term economic growth in Uzbekistan, the country will have to
maintain investment-based development, diversify its industry, modernize its services sector, and ensure macroeconomic
stability. The study offers policy-makers evidence-based information on the topic and contributes to the broader body of
research reflecting economic development in transition economies.