DAVLAT BUDJETI DAROMADLARINI O‘RTA MUDDATLI ISTIQBOLDA REJALASHTIRISH VA PROGNOZLASHTIRISH O‘ZIGA XOS XUSUSIYATLARI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17951082Keywords:
davlat budjeti daromadlari, o‘rta muddatli fiskal prognozlash, Ridge regressiyasi, Lasso regressiyasi, Elastic Net, YAIM, mulk solig‘i, daromad solig‘i, MTEF, fiskal barqarorlikAbstract
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston Respublikasida davlat budjeti daromadlarini o‘rta muddatli istiqbolda
rejalashtirish va prognozlashtirishning ilmiy-metodologik asoslari ishlab chiqilgan. Tadqiqot 2000–2023-yillar davri uchun
YAIM, uning tarkibiy tarmoqlari (qishloq xo‘jaligi, sanoat, qurilish, savdo va xizmat ko‘rsatish) va konsolidatsiyalashgan
budjetdagi asosiy soliq turlari (QQS, aksiz solig‘i, mulk solig‘i, daromad solig‘i) bo‘yicha real qiymatlardagi ma’lumotlarga
tayanadi. An’anaviy OLS modeli natijalari Ridge, Lasso va Elastic Net kabi regulyarizatsiyalang‘an regressiya modellari
bilan taqqoslanib, o‘rta muddatli fiskal prognozlarning aniqligi va barqarorligini oshirish imkoniyatlari baholangan.
Empirik natijalar mulk va daromad soliqlari YAIM hamda tarmoqlararo o‘sishning eng kuchli drayverlari ekanini, mulk
solig‘i koeffitsiyentlari esa ayniqsa sanoat va qurilish tarmoqlarida yuqori ekanini ko‘rsatadi. 2024–2026-yillar uchun
makroiqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlar va konsolidatsiyalashgan budjet daromadlari bo‘yicha ishlab chiqilgan prognozlar Ridge/
Lasso modellari natijalari bilan uyg‘unlikda bo‘lib, resurslar «chegarasi»ni (resource envelope) aniq belgilash va MTEF
doirasida fiskal barqarorlikni mustahkamlashga xizmat qiladi. Maqolada yuridik shaxslar ko‘chmas mulki uchun eng kam
kadastr me’yorlarini joriy etish, soliq ma’murchiligini raqamlashtirish va hududlar kesimida soliq bazasini diversifikatsiya
qilishga doir amaliy takliflar ilgari surilgan
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