O‘ZBEKISTONDA INFLYATSIYA MAQSADLASHI REJIMI: SAMARADORLIGI, MUAMMOLARI VA 2026-YILGA YANGILANGAN PROGNOZ TAHLILI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22877104Abstract
Ushbu tadqiqotda O‘zbekistonda 2021-yildan rasman joriy etilgan inflyatsiya maqsadlashi (IT) rejimining samaradorligi 2017–2026-yillar ma’lumotlari asosida ARDL, VAR va Taylor qoidasi asosida empirik jihatdan baholandi. Markaziy bankning rasmiy qarorlari (2024-yil 31-oktyabr va 2026-yil 28-yanvar) hamda IMF FSAP (2025) hisobotlari asosida asosiy natijalar aniqlandi: inflyatsiya 2018-yildagi 17,5 % (tarixiy tepa) dan 2023-yilda 8,8 % va 2024-yil dekabrda 9,8 % gacha tushdi. MB 2026-yil 28-yanvar yangilangan prognoziga ko‘ra, 2026-yil yakunlarida inflyatsiya 6,5 % atrofida shakllanishi kutilmoqda; 5 % maqsadli targetga erishish 2027-yilning birinchi yarmiga mo‘ljallangan.
Keywords
inflation targeting, Taylor rule, policy rate, ARDL, monetary policy transmission, inflation target, Uzbekistan, 2026 forecastReferences
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