QANDLI DIABET KASALLIGINING POPULYATSIYADA TARQALISH ZANJIRI VA DINAMIK KO‘RSATKICHLARINING MATEMATIK-STATISTIK TAHLILI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22875547Abstract
Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is one of the chronic non-communicable diseases threatening socio-demographic stability globally and in Uzbekistan. The objective of this study is to examine the transmission chain of diabetes in the population and forecast its dynamic indicators using mathematical-statistical models. Based on retrospective medical-statistical data from 2015 to 2025, non-linear differential equations (SPDC model) and Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied. The basic reproduction number was calculated to determine the epidemic threshold. The results indicate that the average annual growth rate of diabetes in Uzbekistan is 5.4%. If the intensity of preventive measures is not enhanced, the prevalence of the disease is projected to increase by 14% per 100,000 population by 2030. The proposed dynamic model serves as a scientific baseline for increasing the efficiency of preventive monitoring and optimizing medical resource allocation in the healthcare system.Keywords
diabetes mellitus, epidemiological chain, compartmental model, basic reproduction number, forecasting, statistical analysisReferences
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