TIJORAT BANKLARI KREDITLASH AMALIYOTI SAMARADORLIGINI PROGNOZLASH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22348614Abstract
Maqolada tijorat banklari kreditlash amaliyoti samaradorligini prognozlashning uslubiy yondashuvlari ko‘rib
chiqilgan va “InFinBank” ATB misolida amaliy hisob-kitoblar amalga oshirilgan. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy bankining
(cbu.uz) 2020–2025-yillardagi statistik ma’lumotlari hamda bankning moliyaviy hisobotlari asosida kredit portfelining
kvadratik logarifmik trend modeli baholangan (R² = 0,9985; MAPE = 2,01 %). Muallif tomonidan kreditlash amaliyoti
samaradorligini kompleks baholovchi integral ko‘rsatkich (IKS) taklif etilgan hamda uning tarkibiy qismlari — ROA, NIM,
NPL, CIR va kreditlarning aktivlardagi ulushi — etalon qiymatlarga nisbatan normallashtirilgan. Model asosida bankning
kredit portfeli va samaradorlik ko‘rsatkichlari 2029-yilgacha uch ssenariyda prognoz qilingan. Baza ssenariysida kredit
portfeli 2029-yilda 18 179 mlrd so‘mga yetishi, IKS qiymati esa 0,883 dan 1,000 gacha ko‘tarilishi kutilmoqda. Tadqiqot
natijalari asosida bank kredit siyosatini takomillashtirish bo‘yicha amaliy tavsiyalar ishlab chiqilgan
Keywords
tijorat banki, kreditlash amaliyoti, kredit portfeli, samaradorlik, prognozlash, trend modeli, integral ko‘rsatkich, muammoli kreditlar, foiz marjasi, “InFinBank” ATB.References
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