VALYUTA BOZORI KUTILMALARI VA ISHONCH OMILINING MILLIY VALYUTA BARQARORLIGIDAGI ROLI: KUTISHLAR NAZARIYASI ASOSIDA TAHLIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048019Keywords:
valyuta kursi, kutilmalar nazariyasi, ishonch omili, ratsional kutilmalar, adaptiv kutilmalar, monetar siyosat, dollarlashuv, Markaziy bank ishonchliligi, spekulyativ hujumlar.Abstract
Ushbu maqolada milliy valyuta barqarorligini ta’minlashda iqtisodiy kutilmalar va ishonch omilining o‘rni
kutilmalar nazariyasi prizmasi orqali tadqiq etiladi. Tadqiqotning maqsadi — valyuta bozoridagi ishtirokchilarning psixologik
holati va kelajakdagi kurs bo‘yicha farazlari real iqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlar bilan qanday bog‘lanishini aniqlashdir.
Metodologiya sifatida ratsional va adaptiv kutilmalar modellari, qiyosiy tahlil va deduksiya usullari qo‘llanilgan. Tadqiqot
natijalari shuni ko‘rsatadiki, hatto fundamental iqtisodiy omillar barqaror bo‘lgan taqdirda ham, ishonch inqirozi valyuta
devalvatsiyasini keltirib chiqarishi mumkin. Xulosa qismida Markaziy bankning kommunikatsiya siyosatini takomillashtirish
va bozor ishtirokchilarida ijobiy kutilmalarni shakllantirish bo‘yicha amaliy tavsiyalar berilgan
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