O‘ZBEKISTONDA DAVLAT XARAJATLARINING IQTISODIY O‘SISHGA TA`SIRI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19408056Keywords:
Davlat xarajatlari, iqtisodiy o‘sish, Greynjer sababiyligi, fiskal siyosat.Abstract
Ushbu tadqiqot O‘zbekistonda davlat xarajatlari va iqtisodiy o‘sish o‘rtasidagi sababiy bog'liqlikni vaqt
qatori ekonometrik modeli doirasida o‘rganadi. Ma'lumotlar Xalqaro Valyuta Jamg'armasining (XVJ) Jahon iqtisodiy
istiqbollari (WEO) ma'lumotlar bazasidan to‘plangan 1992-2024 yillarni qamrab oladi. Taqqoslash maqsadida ikkala
o‘zgaruvchi ham joriy narxlarda o‘lchanadi va tabiiy logarifmga aylantiriladi. O‘zgaruvchilarning statsionar xususiyatlari
kengaytirilgan Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi yordamida o‘rganiladi. Natijalar shuni ko‘rsatadiki, ikkala vaqt qatori ham o‘z
darajalarida statsionar emas, lekin ularning farqlari olingandan so‘ng statsionar bo‘lib qoladi. Shunga ko‘ra, tahlilda davlat
xarajatlarining birinchi farqi va iqtisodiy o‘sishning ikkinchi farqi qo‘llaniladi. Optimal kechikish uzunligi axborot mezonlari
asosida aniqlanadi. Keyin sabab yo‘nalishini o‘rganish uchun Greynjer sababiylik testi qo‘llaniladi. Empirik natijalar shuni
ko‘rsatadiki, davlat xarajatlari va iqtisodiy o‘sish o‘rtasida ikki tomonlama sababiy bog'liqlikning kuchli dalillari mavjud.
Davlat xarajatlari iqtisodiy o‘sishga sezilarli ta'sir ko‘rsatadi, iqtisodiy o‘sish esa davlat xarajatlari darajasini aniqlashda
ham muhim rol o‘ynaydi. Bu natijalar fiskal siyosat va iqtisodiy o‘sish o‘rtasida teskari aloqa mexanizmi mavjudligini
ko‘rsatadi. Ushbu tadqiqot O‘zbekiston misolida yangi dalillarni taqdim etish orqali mavjud adabiyotlarga qo‘shimcha
bo‘lib, oqilona fiskal siyosat barqaror iqtisodiy o‘sishning uzoq muddatli jarayonida hal qiluvchi rol o‘ynashini qo‘llabquvvatlaydi.
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