TADQIQOT DIZAYNINI ISHLAB CHIQISH JARAYONIDA GIPOTEZALARNI SHAKLLANTIRISH, O‘ZGARUVCHILAR TIZIMINI TANLASH VA EKONOMET RIK IDENTIFIKATSIYA STRATEGIYASINI ASOSLASH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18438737Keywords:
tadqiqot dizayni; gipoteza; o‘zgaruvchilar tizimi; operatsionallashtirish; identifikatsiya; endogenlik; kausal inferensiya; instrumental o‘zgaruvchilar; DiD; RD; panel ma’lumotlarAbstract
Ushbu maqolada tadqiqot dizaynini ishlab chiqish jarayonida gipotezalarni shakllantirish, o‘zgaruvchilar
tizimini tanlash hamda ekonometrik identifikatsiya strategiyasini asoslash masalalari metodologik jihatdan yoritiladi.
Tadqiqot jarayoni “muammo–nazariya–gipoteza–o‘lchash–identifikatsiya–baholash–tekshiruv” zanjiri sifatida talqin
qilinib, har bir bosqichda yuzaga keladigan asosiy xatoliklar — o‘lchash xatosi, tanlanma seleksiyasi, endogenlik,
o‘tkazib yuborilgan o‘zgaruvchilar xatosi (omitted variable bias), teskari sababiylik va boshqa tahdidlar — hamda ularni
kamaytirish yo‘llari tizimlashtiriladi. Maqolada gipotezalarni testlanadigan va falsifikatsiya qilinadigan shaklga keltirish,
sababiy (kausal) savolni aniqlashtirish, konseptual model asosida o‘zgaruvchilarni operatsionallashtirish, indikatorlar va
proksi o‘zgaruvchilarni tanlash mezonlari muhokama qilinadi. Identifikatsiya strategiyalari sifatida randomizatsiya, tabiiy
tajribalar, instrumental o‘zgaruvchilar, farqlar farqi (DiD), regressiya diskontinuiteti (RD), panel ma’lumotlar va fiksirlangan
effektlar, moslashtirish (matching) hamda sintetik nazorat yondashuvlarining asosiy taxminlari va diagnostik testlari
yoritiladi. “Natijalar” bo‘limida ta’lim dasturi samaradorligini baholash misolida gipotezalar, o‘zgaruvchilar matritsasi,
identifikatsiya strategiyasini tanlash mantiqi hamda jadval va sxematik tasvirlar keltiriladi. Xulosa qismida tadqiqot
dizaynining sifat ko‘rsatkichlari, ishonchlilik va takrorlanish (replicability) talablarini ta’minlash bo‘yicha amaliy tavsiyalar
beriladi.
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