Ecosystem Services Under Ecological Stress: the Case of the Former Aral Sea

Abstract

The desiccation of the Aral Sea stands as one of the most dramatic examples of ecological degradation in
modern history, resulting in the collapse of vital ecosystem services that once sustained the environment and livelihoods
in Central Asia. This study investigates the economic valuation of ecosystem services in the former Aral Sea region, with
a focus on provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach—including
market-based valuation, benefit transfer, and contingent valuation—this research estimates that the region suffers annual
ecosystem service losses ranging from USD 80 to 97 million. These include lost freshwater access, collapsed fisheries,
increased dust-related health costs, and degradation of biodiversity and cultural heritage. The results highlight the urgent
need to incorporate ecosystem service valuation into environmental policy, restoration planning, and regional development
strategies. Moreover, the strong local willingness to invest in restoration efforts demonstrates public support for
ecological and economic recovery. The findings provide a replicable framework for ecosystem assessment in ecologically
stressed regions and reinforce the importance of nature-based solutions in post-disaster recovery contexts.