Qayta tiklanadigan vodorod narxlari strategiyasini o’rganish: xarajat noaniqliklarini bartaraf etish
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15510079Keywords:
yashil vodorod, qayta tiklanadigan energiya, narxlash strategiyasi, xarajat noaniqligi, Monte Karlo simulyatsiyasi, dinamik narxlash, shartnoma asosidagi narx [offtake], CAPEX va OPEX, bozor mexanizmlari, regulyator tavsiyalariAbstract
Ushbu maqolada qayta tiklanadigan energiya asosida ishlab chiqarilgan yashil vodorod narxlash
strategiyalari tahlil qilinadi. Avvalo, yashil vodorod ishlab chiqarishdagi CAPEX va OPEX kabi asosiy xarajat
komponentlari ko‘rib chiqilib, ularning noaniqlik manbalari aniqlanadi. Keyin stoxastik model va Monte Karlo
simulyatsiyalari yordamida xarajat hamda bozor parametrlarining tarqalishi baholanadi. Tadqiqotda uch xil
narxlash yondashuvi solishtiriladi: statik (bir martalik) narx belgilash, dinamik (bozor sharoitiga moslashuvchi)
narx va uzoq muddatli offtake shartnomalari asosidagi narx. Har bir strategiyaning ichki daromadlilik darajasi
– IRR, risk o‘lchovlari – VaR 95 % va sof foyda ko‘rsatkichlari taqdim etiladi. Natijalar dinamik narxlashning
eng yuqori rentabellik va barqarorlikni ta’minlashini ko‘rsatadi, shartnoma yondashuvi esa uzoq muddatli
xavfsizlikni oshiradi. Maqola yakunida regulyatorlar va sanoat ishtirokchilari uchun soliqlar, subsidiyalar
hamda real vaqt monitoring platformalari bo‘yicha aniq tavsiyalar berilgan.
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